2004 United States Senate election in Florida

2004 United States Senate election in Florida
	County results Martinez: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Castor: 40-50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80%
U.S. senator before election; Bob Graham; Democratic	Elected U.S. Senator ; Mel Martínez; Republican

The 2004 United States Senate election in Florida took place on November 2, 2004, alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Bob Graham decided to retire instead of seeking a fourth term. Graham made an unsuccessful bid for the Democratic presidential nomination. The primary elections were held on August 31, 2004. Republican Mel Martínez won the open seat with 49.4% of the vote to Democratic nominee Betty Castor's 48.3%. With a margin of 1.1%, this election was the closest race of the 2004 Senate election cycle. This was the first open-seat United States Senate election in Florida for this seat since 1974.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Betty Castor, former President of the University of South Florida, former Education Commissioner of Florida, and former State Senator
Peter Deutsch, U.S. Representative from Broward County
Bernard Klein, businessman
Alex Penelas, Mayor of Miami-Dade County

Results

Democratic primary results^[1]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Betty Castor	669,346	58.1%
	Democratic	Peter Deutsch	321,922	27.9%
	Democratic	Alex Penelas	115,898	10.1%
	Democratic	Bernard E. Klein	45,347	3.9%
Total votes			1,152,513	100.0%

Republican primary

Martínez was supported by the Bush Administration.

Candidates

Johnnie Byrd, State Representative from Plant City
Doug Gallagher, businessman
Larry Klayman, attorney
William Kogut
Sonya March
Mel Martínez, former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development and candidate for Lieutenant Governor in 1994
Bill McCollum, former U.S. Representative and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2000
Karen Saull

Results

Republican Primary results^[2]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Mel Martínez	522,994	44.9%
	Republican	Bill McCollum	360,474	30.9%
	Republican	Doug Gallagher	158,360	13.6%
	Republican	Johnnie Byrd	68,982	5.9%
	Republican	Karen Saull	20,365	1.8%
	Republican	Sonya March	17,804	1.5%
	Republican	Larry Klayman	13,257	1.1%
	Republican	William Billy Kogut	3,695	0.3%
Total votes			1,165,931	100.0%

General election

Candidates

Dennis Bradley (V), activist
Betty Castor (D), former State Senator
Mel Martínez (R), Secretary of Housing and Urban Development

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[3]	Lean R (flip)	November 1, 2004

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Betty Castor (D)	Mel Martínez (R)	Other	Undecided
Rasmussen Reports^{[citation needed]}	August 24	500	± 4.5%	44%	44%
Survey USA^{[citation needed]}	September 12	602	± 4.1%	49%	45%	5%	1%
Quinnipiac^[4]	September 18–21, 2004	819	± 3.4	43%	42%	0%	14%
Gallup^{[citation needed]}	September 18	674	± 4.0%	51%	45%	0%	4%
Survey USA^{[citation needed]}	October 1	706	± 3.8%	46%	50%	3%	1%
Quinnipiac^[5]	October 1–5, 2004	717	± 3.7	47%	48%	0%	5%
Mason-Dixon^{[citation needed]}	October 4	625	± 4.0%	41%	46%	1%	12%
UNF^{[citation needed]}	October 10	641	± 4.0%	38%	35%	15%	12%
Mason-Dixon^{[citation needed]}	October 14	625	± 4.0%	45%	45%	1%	9%
Survey USA^{[citation needed]}	October 15	596	± 4.1%	47%	49%	3%	1%
Quinnipiac^[6]	October 15–19, 2004	808	± 3.5	47%	47%	0%	5%
Research 2000^{[citation needed]}	October 18			48%	48%	4%	4%
Miami Herald^{[citation needed]}	October 19	800	± 3.5%	44%	44%
Survey USA^{[citation needed]}	October 22	741	± 3.7%	50%	47%
Insider Advantage^{[citation needed]}	October 22	400	± 5.0%	44%	46%
Quinnipiac^[7]	October 22–26, 2004	944	± 3.2	46%	49%	0%	5%
The New York Times^{[citation needed]}	October 23	802	± 3.0%	47%	44%	0%	10%
Mason Dixon^{[citation needed]}	October 26	625	± 4.0%	46%	47%		6%
CNN/USA Today/Gallup^{[citation needed]}	October 28	1138	± 4.0%	48%	46%		5%
Quinnipiac University^{[citation needed]}	October 31	1098	± 3.0%	44%	49%		6%
Zogby International^{[citation needed]}	October 31	600	± 4.0%	46%	46%	0%	7%

Results

United States Senate election in Florida, 2004^[8]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Melquíades Rafael Martínez Ruiz	3,672,864	49.43%	+11.9%
	Democratic	Elizabeth Castor	3,590,201	48.32%	−14.15%
	Veterans	Dennis F. Bradley	166,642	2.24%	+2.24%
	Write-ins		187	0.00%	+0.0%
Majority			82,663	1.11%	−23.83%
Turnout			7,429,894	70.92%^[9]	+24.08%
Total votes			7,429,894	100.00%	+3,529,732
	Republican gain from Democratic		Swing

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Calhoun (Largest city: Blountstown)
Citrus (Largest city: Homosassa Springs)
Dixie (Largest city: Cross City)
Glades (Largest city: Moore Haven)
Gulf (Largest city: Port St. Joe)
Levy (Largest city: Williston)
Putnam (Largest city: Palatka)
Taylor (Largest city: Perry)
Jackson (Largest city: Marianna)
Lafayette (Largest city: Mayo)
Union (Largest city: Lake Butler)
Washington (Largest city: Chipley)
Brevard (largest municipality: Palm Bay)
Okeechobee (largest municipality: Okeechobee)
Polk (largest municipality: Lakeland)
Miami-Dade (largest city: Miami)
Osceola (largest municipality: Kissimmee)
Orange (Largest city: Orlando)
Escambia (Largest city: Pensacola)
Hendry (Largest city: Clewiston)
Marion (Largest city: Ocala)
Hardee (Largest city: Wachula)
Highlands (Largest city: Sebring)
Indian River (Largest city: Sebastian)
Lake (Largest city: Clermont)
Lee (Largest city: Cape Coral)
Suwannee (Largest city: Live Oak)
Duval (largest municipality: Jacksonville)
Charlotte (Largest city: Charlotte)
Columbia (Largest city: Lake City)
DeSoto (Largest city: Arcadia)
Gilchrist (Largest city: Trenton)
Sumter (Largest city: The Villages)
Bradford (Largest city: Starke)
Baker (Largest city: Macclenny)
Bay (Largest city: Panama City)
Clay (Largest city: Lakeside)
Holmes (Largest city: Bonifay)
Manatee (Largest city: Bradenton)
Martin (Largest city: Palm City)
Nassau (Largest city: Yulee)
St. Johns (Largest city: St. Johns)
Walton (Largest city: Miramar Beach)
Seminole (largest municipality: Sanford)

References

^ "Florida Department of State - Election Results". Archived from the original on October 3, 2011. Retrieved May 10, 2016.
^ "Florida Department of State - Election Results". Archived from the original on October 3, 2011. Retrieved May 10, 2016.
^ "The Final Predictions". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved May 2, 2021.
^ Quinnipiac
^ Quinnipiac
^ Quinnipiac
^ Quinnipiac
^ "Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives".
^ "Voter Registration - Yearly - Division of Elections - Florida Department of State". Archived from the original on December 5, 2016. Retrieved December 6, 2016.

External links

WTSP-TV (Tampa Bay) website
WKMG-TV (Orlando) website

Debates

Florida Senate General Election Debate on C-SPAN, October 18, 2004
Florida Senate General Election Debate on C-SPAN, October 25, 2004

Official campaign websites (archived)
Democrats

Republicans

[1] "Florida Department of State - Election Results". Archived from the original on October 3, 2011. Retrieved May 10, 2016.

[2] "Florida Department of State - Election Results". Archived from the original on October 3, 2011. Retrieved May 10, 2016.

[3] "The Final Predictions". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved May 2, 2021.

[4] Quinnipiac

[5] Quinnipiac

[6] Quinnipiac

[7] Quinnipiac

[8] "Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives".

[9] "Voter Registration - Yearly - Division of Elections - Florida Department of State". Archived from the original on December 5, 2016. Retrieved December 6, 2016.

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Democratic primary

Candidates

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Results

General election

Candidates

Predictions

Polling

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

References

External links